Friday, March 11, 2011

Pakistan's Future by Stephen P Cohen

Stephen P Cohen is an old friend of Pakistan and under mentioned are the crux of discussion with political scientist on the same topic.
Over all he was pessimistic in his opinion. In his views, their would be revival of insurgencies, absence of economy and non organized political / Government institutions.
 Question raised during the course of discussion was regarding the survival of Pakistan in Future.
He addresses five driving forces Pakistan to fast decay
  • Pakistan is a fragile Nuclear State with long record of proliferation.
  • Pakistan follow a policy of supporting Jihad movements and have either turned a blind on their activities or incapacity of holding them in doing wrong in European countries and China.
  • Identity based disputes with India are still present and they would be worsen in coming decades.
  • Pakistan is economically stagnating , and it was worsen with the Earth Quake and present floods moreover bad demography is worsening the odds.
  • Worse performance by Civil Military elite, who failed to make Pakistan a growing concern.
Possible Scenarios emerging from this discussion.
 The report has provided seven scenarios more and less the same, Stephen believes in Parallel Pakistan state, however few crux from the time lined events are :-
  • Federation would be weakened, which would eventually cause the collapse of Army and thereby remove the pivot in Pakistan. This would cause erosion in its infrastructure, law and order situation would be worsen, poor governance and sectarianism would increase.
  • Before the happening of all above their would be emergence of militia, which would provide social services like Hamas and Hezbollah.
  • He believes that if the only objective of ruling elite is to extend their tenure and make profit then the decay of the society is obvious and certain.
 Solution and author views
  •  Essential reforms in security and financial sectors are postponed due to bad governance, Government is acting like Step uncle, they can point out the faults and can provide the solution, but unable to implement the remedies.
  • Pakistan Military and Civil Leadership should transfer the Pakistan paradigm from security state to a state providing human and citizen security.

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