Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Afghanistan Intelligence Agencies creating unrest in Afghanistan

Good step was taken by Pakistan Top Brass by having a combine meeting of Military and Civil Heads in relation to Pakistan National Security issues. Although, Terrorist attacks are in increase, Karachi unrest still exist and Talks with TTP are still not showing any way ahead. It was important to show to all foreign and non state actors that Government and military are on the same page, once dealing with miscreant.
During this meet, various matters of military nature were discussed like posting and promotions of Top military brass, issue was Afghanistan intelligence agency ; KHAD (Khadamat-e Aetla'at-e Dawlati) was also discussed;

This is  no more a hidden fact that KHAD his its involvement in terrorist activities in Pakistan; This fact placed Hamid Karzai in very dubious situation. Either he is having no control on his government institutions even after having two terms in president office OR may be his Foreign policy towards Pakistan is based upon unfriendly relations. In both the cases, his statement that NATO forces are responsible for instability in Afghanistan ( As these forces carried out operations in Afghan villages instead of attacking Pakistan Tribal areas) has become questionable. 
What Mr Karazai Wants??
As a President he should have futuristic plan for his country; creating hatred in region will move back Afghanistan to decade back !!!! Indian Intelligence Agencies heads visit to Afghanistan and involvement of India and Afghanistan in unrest in Pakistan is not a matter of surprise .

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Hakim ullah Mehsud ... Is he Serious in talks with Government

After the deceased Baitullah Mehsud, Hakimullah Mehsud took over the command of TTP in 2009. His Niab amir deceased in May 2013( New Niab Amir Latif Mehsud is also believed to be in US custody). Government is trying its utmost to start peace talks with TTP, but effort are apparently not showing any results.  Different regional experts believed that these talks would not be fruitful, however, some are of the believe that  Peace Talks' are essential before the start of any military action in future. But what is the stance of TTP ( that seems to be the big question).

TPP Demands. TTP have not come up with any clear cut demands with Government, Although  they had placed few wage demands details are as under.
  • Government should stop all military actions.
  • Drone attacks should stop.

    Latif Mehsud
  • Release of all TTP militants from Pakistan Jail.
  • Stop cooperation with US in Anti terrorist operations.
Although, some of the demands are beyond the scope of Pakistan Government; However, release of militants/ stopping of military action in tribal belts are few action which are under the control of present Government ( But with many major repercussions).

Latest interview of Hakimullah Mehsud with BBC. Hakim Ullah Mehsud brought new facts on the table;
  • He commented that Pakistan Government has not contacted him for any peace talks. He was  reluctance to place his demands through media.
  • While asked about reasons for failure of previous peace deals; he blame Pakistan Government for not keeping their part of deal.
  • TTP will take actions against US and westerner and Pakistan Army because they are works in line with western interests.
  • Even with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan;he still believe that they want to make Pakistan as an Islamic state.
Analysis of Hakimullah intyerview to BBC. Hakimullah has discussed various points without providing details of clear cut agenda for future peace talks; however, we have to keep this in mind that TTP leader ship is having lose control over 30 factions of TTP.
  • He showed that TTP wants to gain time  to reorganize and establish its control.
  • Wants to establish strong links with Afghan Taliban, and play some important role in ISAF exit scenario.
  • Series of terrorist attacks in Pakistan give clear evidence that TTP is non serious in any kind of peace talks OR they have no control over other splinter groups.

   "First, Establish the WRIT of Government"

"Secondly, Force TTP to Finish Armed Wing and show its presence As Political Party"

"Thirdly, Constitution of Pakistan should be implemented in Tribal Areas"  

"Last but not the least, Bring Educational, Economical, Political and Social reforms"

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Karzai Blames NATO forces for unstability in Afghanistan

Timing for  ISAF exit from Afghanistan is closing up, blame game has been started !!!

Hamid Karzai during an interview to BBC (Newsnight) has criticized NATO forces that they were unableto bring peace in Afghanistan after a decade of war. In addition to this he further expressed that, NATO forces had brought more miseres to Afghan people as compared to remove the terrorist from his country.
Karazai such comments are of importance under such circumstances where there are only six months are left for western forces to leave Afghanistan and he himself is about to finish his two tenure as President. His efforts to bring Taliban on peace talks have been increased manifold in last few month, where he asked from Pakistan to free few important Taliban leaders to facilitate the talks. Although, any efforts don't seems to bring any fruit. May be Taliban understands the dynamics of this region better than western and Mrs Karazai himself.

Fingers pointed towards Pakistan....
Once again Mr. Karazai has pointed ot towards Pakistan. He said that Western forces remained focused eliminating Terrorist sanctuaries from Afghan Villages, but main sanctuaries of Taliban were existing in Pakistan..... May be he just forgot to mention Terrorist sanctuaries existing in Nuristan and other Provinces where Pakistan authorities have already pointed out to him .... 

Fact is vivid and clear, although failure in policy exist on part of Western forces and at the same time Mr Karazai made big mistakes himself by rejecting the existing of AFGHAN TALIBAN.... Now he believes that Taliban are Afghans and they can be part of Afghan Government, but he was unable to visualize this for last one decade himself
  • Aligning Afghanistan with India has not been fruitful for eliminating extremism in his country,rather it was a major cause that increased the role of non state actors.
  • Following the foot steps of Western powers ( no talks with terrorist) was not a good policy, he should have realize that, Pashtun are major ethnic entity in Afghan society and they have backing/ liking for Taliban 
  • Afghanistan may have weak government, but still she has to stop " Looking outward policy" to solve their domestic issues.
  • Atone place he is asking help from Pakistan to start peace talks with Afghan Taliban, but at the same time he is blaming Pakistan having Taliban presence in their homeland. this dual policy will not bear fruits.
  •  He should admit that Terrorist sanctuaries exist in Afghanistan, which are causing problems in Pakistan. This problem is related to both countries and once western forces leave this region ; Pakistan and Afghanistan would be left with to solve this issue.So, it is come problem have to be solved in collective manner.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Increasing Prices, no tax relief and Devaluing Rupee

Rs 4 to 5 / litre increase
Monthly periodic increase in electricity and fuel prices was a common feature, but government has taken lead over all previous records by increasing the petrol prices upto Rs 4 and diesel prices up by Rs 5. In addition to this Pakistani middle class consuming 200 to 300 units of electricity would be expecting 40 to 80 percent increase in their electricity bills.

Government may have their reasons; they will throw all the blame on IMF conditions or devalution of rupee in market or increasing prices of Oil in international market; but the fact remain the same government has failed to provide relief to common man.

No check has been placed against power theft, line losses and Government has not shown any interest in using cheap fuels to produce electricity. Government has again failed to increase the tax net

 What is the situation:  

1. Electricity consumers paying their bills honestly have to pay for the power theft/ line losses.
2. Middle Class paying tax has to cater for complete Government revenues circle. As agriculture sector was not included in tax networks, which is long history of Pakistan.
3. Extra government revenues are generated by increasing the prices of petrol and diesel; and their is no doubt that this would be having direct impact on daily prices of transportation and day to day use goods.
4. Government is borrowing money from IMF to pay old debts and these are non productive borrowing ( having interest rate attach to them)

Economical graph of the country is going down; at one end we are suffering from energy crisis, other way it is terrorist and now it is exponential price hike of necessary comodities.

TTP wants to gain time till ISAF exit

These are million dollar questions...... What is Pakistan National Security Policy? How to handle militants groups.... Go for political OR military solution? Latest news that government wants to have peaceful negotiation with these militant.They are categorize as Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan to distinguish them from Afghan Taliban, but who are TTP? They are not a potent force rather they can be believe as disorganize bodies of militant groups. As per expert opinion there are 64 factions of TTP, most of them are not even affiliated with Hakimullah Mehsud. Hakimullah Mehsud having no control on these groups, main example can be delineating from Jundul Hafsa responsible for Peshawar Church attack. 
Negotiation process was started by PML - N Government, with meeting / conference of All political parties. Few prisoners were freed on request of Afghan President for cross border talks with Afghan Taliban, and freeing TTP leaders from Pakistani Jails was also in process. As all the underhand deals and thrust building measures were in process; all of sudden Lower Dir incident took place where one senior officer of Pakistan Army embraced shahadit. 

What should be the Negotiation terms with TTP
Army stance:   For better understanding we should analyze the capability and will of Pakistan Army. Can Pakistan Army carry out operations in FATA. Answer is yes and example is notorious Tera Valley Operation. Army wants to have national will, which can only be possible through political process.

Political parties stance: PML- N is again sitting in the corridors of power with full majority but unable to make decision, Parliament is in itself APC (All Party Conference), why they need consensus to eliminate national threats; they are looking grab the opportunity with political process. How can we negotiate with TTP leader who is having no control on every faction of militants operating in this region. 


Political Wing of TTP.  don't have political wing to negotiate with government, either they should be forced to create political wing to legitimize their existence OR there should be any negotiation with terrorists. Time is rip. NATO/ US and other European forces are pressurizing the foreign agencies to stop their activities to stabilize Afghan region for smooth exit of ISAF forces. Pakistan Government should grasp this opportunity and don't waste time in fruitless negotiations. TTP is trying to gain time by forwarding stupid demands like " Pakistan Government to stop US drone attacks"     


Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Militants OR No Militants

Militants attacked and target killed more than hundred in small town of Northern Nairobi, Boko Haram accepted the claim. More than sixty were made hostage in Westgate mall in Kenya and latter on many were killed Al Shabab warned the world and Kenya to stay out of Somalia. Again Boko Haram has shown its presence by killing dozens of students. Blasts in Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan and ma
ny other Muslim countries have the same fate. Muslims are so eager to kill Muslims to create Islamic state. Driving non Muslims away from Islam, those who believed in Islam as an peaceful religion are afraid of us and consider Islam as a synonym to terrorism. Fanaticism, extremists or terrorist what all name we want to share for them can not serve the purpose. Who are they !!!! they are our own creation; at some point in time our wrong decision ,manipulated, decisions and crooked decisions have created or facilitated in creating them. We can not over look them, if not part of our system; even then they are shadow of our corruption. Isolating Mullahs, Qarri and Madrassa students by ignoring them,, we are creating hate in society. These fanatics and extremists are nothing more then than birth of this hatred. Isolation is not a cure and acceptance is not that easy. Our pain and suffering is a fact, but they are passing through a period of humiliation and suffering. They need knowledge, wisdom and acceptance. Government, society and individuals have to make them part of this society; then it would be possible that they would save this society. We are privileged ; we live free. for them its not option. freedom of thoughts and action is not common for them, they cannot choose there friends and enemies. It is only the will and wish of those actors who are having command of their minds. Lets not share hatred for those innocent mind and body who is poisoned by wicked minds: Just pray for them and help them

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