Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Karzai - Obama Bilateral Security Agreement

      Bilateral Security Agreement between US and Afghanistan  Government is essential. To keep the stability and to carry out surgical strikes against any militia activities in Afghanistan, US wants 15000 troops to remain station in Afghanistan.
President Karzai no doubt is US most important and unpredictable ally. For smooth and peaceful withdrawal of US/ ISAF troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014
       Hamid Karzai has made the agreement so controversial and confusing, that at time it seemed non negotiable. At times he stated that criminal cases would be taken up against US troops involved in war crimes and at another point he asked for formal apology from US President. On his recommendation, The Jirga of 2500 Chieftains, politicians and tribal elders was convened. It was again a set back for him as he believed that his hand picked jirga members will follow  his lead, but it went other way.
      But Karzai, in his final remarks to the four-day meeting, said "he would not sign it until after a presidential election due next April", The Express Tribune Nov 2013. This agree would bring peace to Afghanistan and it would facilitate smooth withdrawal of US troops; so it is win win situation for both nation.

Significance of Bilateral Security Agreement: What challenges Afghanistan is facing and what are the Benefits available for Afghan-US.
  • Peace and Stability in Afghanistan as Afghan National Army is not having requisite capacity against militant groups.
  • Smooth Pull out of ISAF/ US forces, which is essential for US as face saving measure. They have to bring 12 years war to some logical conclusion.
  • Presidential elections are expected in April 2014 in Afghanistan, conduct of these elections in conducive environment is essential to strengthen diplomacy in Afghanistan.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Fazl Ullah the New TTP leader - Best Choice

Fazl Ullah
After Bait ullah and Hakim Ullah now it is Fazl Ullah's turn to head TTP. Famous as butcher of swat, mullah radio and got international recognition from Malala incidence.  Fazl ullah is an excellent choice for those interested to sabotage " Pakistan and TTP peace talk". He has publicly announced that TTP will never dialogue with Pakistan Government,as per his believe Pakistani Government is US slave. In a sense, this good for every other person who still having some doubt that TTP are interested in implementing Sharia. Fazl Ullah had already got a chance of implementing (His own ) Sharia. TTP have proved themselves as Muslims by birth with no Islamic understanding. Fazl Ullah escaped from Pakistan after Army action and now hiding in Afghanistan; Us drones can hit well guarded and fully informed Hakim Ullah with notorious timings; but US radars  were unable to detect Fazl Ullah for so many years. US drone are believed to be fitted with US interest Seeker sensors.
        Approximately, six months are left for wdr of major NATO forces from Afghanistan. Dialogue process between Afghan Taliban and Afghan Government bared no fruit. US drones staying in the region, creating more deli ma for Pakistan.  Fazl Ullah, new head of TTP is golden caping in whole process of PEACE.
        "Peace Process OR Dialogues" with TTP seems to be out of question, as TTP already had lose control over other factions. Is I have already stated that, Hakim Ullah was never interested in dialogues with Pakistan Government, I only wanted to gain time. Either TTP is re organized again and well  funded by Indians or US; OR may be Fazl Ullah wanted to gain control over TTP ( he is non Mehsud - as bulk of Taliban support is from Mehsuds). TTP is not in strength, by the blessing of Al mighty no reports about any major blasts in Pakistan has been reported yet.
        But, Dialogue was a good option placed in front of Talibans, this may create some splinter cells and unity TTP could easily be gauged. Rewarding and with effective rehabilitation of these groups, Pakistan Army  would be required to engage less targets with minimum time.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

US drone killed Hakimullah Mehsud; Sabotage Peace Talks

Hakim Ullah Mehsud
Legal standing of US drones strikes in Waziristan agency (Pakistan) is a big question widely discussed in international forums. Now, same strikes have made US standing in establishing peace in this region dubious. Killing of Hakimullah Mehsud, through drone strike was apparently a serious attempt to derail peace process initiated by Pakistan Government. Series of other event like capturing of Latif Mehsud ( second in hierarchy) by US forces are his was not killing of one individual rather it was killing of peace process. During visit of secretary of state, Karry Lugger Government of Pakistan informed him that any drone strike in Pakistan would seriously effect Pakistan's efforts to bring stability in Pakistan-Afghanistan region. Starting of dialogue process had created ripples in loosely organized factions of TTP. Punjabi Taliban commander, Asmaatullah Mauvai was ready for unconditional talks with Government going totally against Hakumullah Mehsud. A few weeks ago, Mohmmad agency TTP commander warned Hakimullah that any negotiations with Government would force him to delink from TTP. Dialogues created split between insurgent groups, but there are spoilers who have there hidden interests; trying to derail peace process. US exit plan from Afghanistan in early time frame was conflicting with Pakistan - TTP peace process. Terrorist groups having peace with Pakistan were believed to be concentrating more towards Afghanistan, thereby, effecting smooth withdrawal of US forces. Pakistani nation have sacrificed more than 50000 lives due to terrorism is still labeled as supporting terrorist groups. Question arise in every mind, why Hakimullah was not targeted in past few months, once comprehensive intelligence was shared by Pakistan Government about his presence in Afghanistan, again stated by Ch Nisar during his press conference.
Interior Minister- Ch Nisar
fostering this conspiracy theory. Pakistan foreign minister Ch Nisar during his press conference clearly stated that, t
  • TTP will announce new leadership, dialogue process would delayed for some time. 
  • TTP will respond in terrorist act on limited or bigger scale (depending upon there strength).
  • Government will to resort to military action in tribal belt, to control the fall out of this event. 
  • TTP will further break up in smaller groups with less control by central leadership. 
  • Chances of internal clashes between TTP factions for control of funds, which is held by central leadership. 
  • Peace Talks with small groups would be successful, which may create a mutual trust environment

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